Teams
BIG EAST CONFERENCE RPI & SCHEDULE ANALYSIS
February 11, 2008 by NBE Blogger · Leave a Comment
A special update on this Monday!
We have updated the Big East Conference RPI Ratings for the conference teams as calculated for conference action only. We also take a deeper look at the remaining conference schedules of each team as we try and dtermine who has the best chance to make it into the Big East Tournament compared to who will be watching on TV at home.
We also look at the teams with the best chances at earning a tournament bye for the event at Madison Square Garden. we do not forsee any surprises on that end, as what everyone perceives as the top four teams currently look to be in command of their own destiny on that front.
We also take a closer look at Syracuse. They have a tough schedule down the stretch that will tax their young and thin line-up. Their ’snub’ from the 2007 NCAA Tournament is still fresh on many minds…how are they looking for 2008?
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Conference |
Conference |
SOS |
RPI |
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Future |
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| Team |
W |
L |
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RPI |
SOS |
Rank |
Rank |
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SOS |
Rank |
| Notre Dame | 8 | 2 | .6046 | .5255 | 3 | 1 | .4581 | 13 | ||
| Connecticut | 7 | 3 | .5880 | .5449 | 1 | 2 | .4365 | 15 | ||
| Georgetown | 9 | 2 | .5830 | .4849 | 11 | 3 | .4953 | 10 | ||
| Marquette | 6 | 5 | .5354 | .5350 | 2 | 4 | .4772 | 12 | ||
| Louisville | 8 | 3 | .5327 | .4654 | 13 | 5 | .5346 | 5 | ||
| Cincinnati | 6 | 5 | .5273 | .5144 | 4 | 6 | .4809 | 11 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 4 | .5024 | .4636 | 14 | 7 | .5333 | 6 | ||
| Seton Hall | 5 | 6 | .5010 | .5116 | 5 | 8 | .4147 | 16 | ||
| West Virginia | 5 | 5 | .5001 | .5002 | 6 | 9 | .4506 | 14 | ||
| Syracuse | 6 | 5 | .4736 | .4545 | 16 | 10 | .5472 | 4 | ||
| Villanova | 4 | 6 | .4673 | .4961 | 7 | 11 | .5078 | 9 | ||
| St. John’s | 4 | 7 | .4624 | .4908 | 10 | 12 | .5602 | 3 | ||
| DePaul | 5 | 6 | .4474 | .4558 | 15 | 13 | .5789 | 1 | ||
| Providence | 4 | 7 | .4405 | .4688 | 12 | 14 | .5761 | 2 | ||
| Rutgers | 2 | 10 | .4135 | .4958 | 8 | 15 | .5158 | 7 | ||
| South Florida | 1 | 10 | .3850 | .4930 | 9 | 16 | .5086 | 8 |
Race for the Big East Tournament:
With only 12 of the 16 Big East teams qualifying for the conference tournament, the race is on for the last couple spots. At this point, Rutgers and South Florida have pretty much assured themselves of watching the event on television, again.
As for the last two spots, they are very much up for grabs. As of today, St. John’s and Providence would be on the outside looking in with Villanova just a ½ game ahead of those two and DePaul and Seton Hall one game ahead. That is five teams fighting for three spots.
When looking at future schedules, it is quite a different story among these teams. Seton Hall has the easiest schedule left in the conference. This should make them a safe bet to qualify for the conference tournament and a legitimate shot at winning 10 Big East games this season.
Villanova has a middle-of-the-pack remaining schedule (Future SOS #9), although the schedule numbers is tilted towards the easier side because of South Florida. They have five tough games (@ Georgetown, West Virginia, Connecticut, Marquette, @ Louisville) along with road games against Providence and St. John’s who are also fighting for survival.
DePaul has a game lead, but they have the toughest Future SOS in the Big East down the stretch. To date, only Syracuse has played an easier conference schedule and now the Blue Demons face a tough road ahead with just three home games (Louisville, West Virginia & Notre Dame) and four road games (UConn, SHU, Pitt and Cincinnati).
Providence is 4-7, but has lost five of their last six games. They only have three road games left, including tomorrow night at Pittsburgh and trip to West Virginia and Cincinnati back-to-back later on. The four home games will be tough with Louisville, Georgetown and Connecticut prior to a season-ending home game with Villanova. That future SOS is rated as the 2nd toughest in the Big East.
St. John’s is also 4-7, but they are riding a three-game winning streak. Two of the wins have come without leading scorer Anthony Mason in the line-up, out with an ankle injury, helping their young squad mature under fire. They have beaten teams they need to beat to qualify for the Big East Tournament recently, with wins over USF, Rutgers and Providence. Now, they finish with the third toughest schedule down the stretch, with three on the road (Cincinnati, Georgetown & Notre Dame) and four at home (Villanova, Marquette, Seton Hall and West Virginia).
It is going to be interesting. DePaul definitely saved themselves by overcoming an 11-point halftime deficit Saturday to beat South Florida. Having the game in hand is huge down the stretch with such a tough schedule. Providence and St. John’s have to find a couple wins against tough remaining schedules to pass DePaul. St. John’s did themselves a huge favor in their comeback win over Providence on Saturday, while the Friars might have to kick themselves for letting that one slip away.
Limping Home?
Although their future schedule ranks as #4 in the Big East, the challenge down the stretch might be harder for Syracuse than any other team in the conference. After the Orange faces South Florida in Florida this week, SU has a three-game stretch with games Georgetown, @ Louisville and @ Notre Dame. They finish the season hosting Pittsburgh, travelling to Seton Hall and hosting Marquette to close the regular season.
As of this morning, Syracuse has an RPI of 45. Last season, their RPI was 50 after the Big East Tournament and they were left out of the NCAA Tournament. With their remaining schedule, they will likely have to do something they have yet to do all year, beat a major conference team with a winning conference record at least a couple times! The Orange own out-of-conference wins over Washington (on a neutral floor) and at Virginia, however, UDub is just 4-7 in the Pac 10 and Virginia is 1-11 in the ACC. They have a loss to Ohio State (neutral floor) and at home to UMass (4-5 in Atlantic 10) and Rhode Island and they have not beaten a Big East team with a winning conference record, yet.
There is no doubt SU has a lot of talent. It is young and thin, however, especially in the backcourt. While other teams are looking to get healthier, that is not going to happen for Syracuse with Eric Devendorf, Andy Rautins, Josh Wright and Devin Brennan-McBride all gone for the season (and beyond with Wright and Brennan-McBride). Their three game stretch to close the season with Pitt, SHU and Marquette will be a lot of pressure on the young Orange…
Race for the Byes
Georgetown, Notre Dame and Connecticut all look to be in excellent position for three of the four conference tournament byes. UConn faces the 2nd easiest schedule down the stretch and after their home date with Notre Dame this week they have it down-right easy (or as easy as the big East will allow). Georgetown closes with a road game at Marquette and battle with Louisville and has to go to Syracuse. The Irish Have UConn coming up and home dates with Pitt and Syracuse, but close out with an easy schedule in their last three. You can almost pencil those three in today as among the top four.
The final spot is a little more dicey, however, Louisville has definitely put their foot forward as the team to beat for it. Louisville definitely has the record, 8-3, but their schedule gets much more difficult. To date, the Cardinal schedule ranks just 13th in the conference and the remaining schedule is the 5th toughest as the close with Syracuse, Pitt, Villanova, Notre Dame and Georgetown.
Pittsburgh is looking to get healthier with the imminent return of Levance Fields, however, their loss to Rutgers dims any chance they have for a bye because of a tough finishing schedule. Marquette and Cincinnati close with lighter schedules, but already having five losses puts them behind the 8-ball.
It would be a surprise to me if the four byes are not earned by Georgetown, Connecticut, Notre Dame and Louisville. Determining 5-10, however, is a complete crapshoot coming down the stretch.
